What are Advanced Metrics?
Advanced metrics, often referred to as analytics, represent a sophisticated evolution in the realm of hockey statistics, transcending the limitations of traditional box score data. They delve beneath the surface, meticulously quantifying facets of the game that remain elusive to conventional statistics. By focusing on puck possession, shot quality, zone entries, and a myriad of other intricate factors, advanced metrics offer a more comprehensive and insightful portrait of a team’s true performance. These metrics, gleaned from meticulous tracking of player and puck movements, serve as powerful tools for discerning patterns, trends, and underlying strengths and weaknesses that may not be readily apparent in conventional statistics. In essence, advanced metrics provide a window into the hidden dynamics of the game, empowering analysts and bettors to make more informed and nuanced assessments of team capabilities
Corsi and Fenwick: The Puck Possession Kings
Two of the most widely used advanced metrics in hockey betting are Corsi and Fenwick.
Corsi: Measures all shot attempts, including shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots, both for and against a team.
Fenwick: Similar to Corsi, but excludes blocked shots, focusing solely on unblocked shot attempts.
Both Corsi and Fenwick, typically expressed as percentages (CF% and FF%), quantify a team’s ability to dictate the flow of play by measuring the proportion of all shot attempts (Corsi) or unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick) they generate relative to their opponents. A higher percentage signifies a greater degree of puck possession and territorial control, implying a team’s ability to create more scoring chances and limit their opponents’ opportunities. While Corsi provides a broader view of overall shot activity, Fenwick focuses on shots that reach the net or miss entirely, thus offering a more refined perspective on a team’s offensive pressure and defensive resilience. By analyzing these metrics over a significant sample size, bettors can gain valuable insights into a team’s underlying performance, independent of fluctuations in shooting and save percentages, which can be subject to short-term variance.
How to Utilize Advanced Metrics in Betting
Beyond Corsi and Fenwick
While Corsi and Fenwick are foundational metrics, many other advanced stats can provide valuable insights:
Expected Goals (xG): Measures the quality of scoring chances, accounting for factors like shot location, type, and traffic in front of the net.
High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDCF): Tracks shots from prime scoring areas, indicating a team’s ability to generate high-quality opportunities.
PDO: Combines a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage, offering a glimpse into potential luck or regression.